Degenerate Gambling Line for Arizona

by joenewby4040 on Sep 17, 2009 5:53 AM PDT in Betting lines Comment 8 comments

Sports-betting_medium

Arizona is a 5 point dog heading into Iowa this weekend. 5.5 on other sites. What do y'all think? I would have felt a lot better about this if Gronk were going, but I still may ride the Cats.

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5 sounds about right

This game screams 24-21 slug-fest to me.

Whose defense can hold up last?

by Smooty on Sep 17, 2009 8:59 AM PDT reply actions

Big Ten last year. Expect them to score more than 24…look for 30-ish as they have way more weapons this year than last. Not sure Cats have that many points in them with rookie QBs. There is also a special teams mismatch and then of course Iowa defense is only allowing 11 a game.

don’t bet it unless you go with Iowa—who have the third best cover rate this decade in college football.

Zed: You could be my right-hand man.
Oh: I've seen what you do with your right hand. No, thank you.

by StoopsMyAss on Sep 17, 2009 11:32 AM PDT reply actions

So 17 against Northern Iowa...

equals more than 30 against Arizona? And besides, all football games are not created equal. Who knows what really will happen. I was just taking a stab based on the two team’s performance this season. Arizona (19 against CMU and 34 against NAU) and Iowa (17 against NIU and 35 against ISU). It doesn’t feel like either team will light up the board offensively.

And, citing cover rates for college football teams over a decade is nonsense. Every year the roster has extreme turnover. This year’s cover rate has absolutely zero relevance to 1999’s cover rate, or even 2007’s cover rate for that matter.

Based on your argument, because Miami covered all the time in the early 90s, you better ride the Canes.

by Smooty on Sep 17, 2009 12:52 PM PDT reply actions

This year

Iowa 1-0 ATS
Arizona 0-2 ATS

Bet with your head, not your heart. Son.

Zed: You could be my right-hand man.
Oh: I've seen what you do with your right hand. No, thank you.

by StoopsMyAss on Sep 17, 2009 1:10 PM PDT reply actions

Somebody ring the small sample size alert bell

by Smooty on Sep 18, 2009 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions

I think we have a...

loser. Iowa by 12.

Zed: You could be my right-hand man.
Oh: I've seen what you do with your right hand. No, thank you.

by StoopsMyAss on Sep 18, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions

The Spread

The only thing is that if a team consistently covers (or doesn’t) the spread it can mean that the odds makers are shifting the spread to even the money out because a disproportionate amount of people are betting either for or against a given team. The spread isn’t just a straight what the Odds Makers think the difference will be but also takes into account how many people are betting one way or the other, hence why the line can ‘move’ if a lot of money gets put on one side or the other.

by Spaghetti_Monster on Sep 17, 2009 2:13 PM PDT reply actions

Wrong!

The spread at WORST wants a 50/50 split so they can live on the vig. But, in a perfect world, and remember these are people who are in the betting business, they will establish a line that tilts the money in their favor. Iowa is not a team that gains much respect nationally, yet often beats teams they should not or beats them much worse than they should and the betting public just can’t bring themselves to give points with Iowa. If you look at the betting line with Iowa, they cover when they are giving points like crazy.

Zed: You could be my right-hand man.
Oh: I've seen what you do with your right hand. No, thank you.

by StoopsMyAss on Sep 17, 2009 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions