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Preview: An Arizona win against Colorado could be the season's tipping point

Time: 7:00 p.m. MST

TV: ESPN

I probably overuse analogies, but the Arizona Wildcats are having a roller coaster of a season. But I can tell you a specific roller coaster that Sean Miller's team went on last year and could very well be going on again.

The main attraction at the world-famous Cedar Point amusement park in Ohio is the Top Thrill Dragster, a simple enough roller coaster to understand.

It only lasts 17 seconds, hits 120 mph quickly enough to go straight up in the air just enough to hang there, scare the crap out of everyone aboard, then come crashing back down with a little help from gravity as quickly as it arrived to its peak.

With the Colorado Buffaloes coming into McKale Center for a nationally televised contest at 7 p.m. tomorrow night, a win might be the gravity pulling at the Wildcats at the end of the apex, just enough to accelerate with rapid momentum all the way to the finish line and into the NCAA tournament.

Star-divide

After the Bay Area sweep that brought Sean Miller's team back into the Pac-12 discussion, the Colorado win could put the Wildcats (16-8, 7-4) in strong contention to climb back into the top three or four teams in the conference, a crucial place to be. A top-3 finish could lead to a tournament invite, and even a top-4 placement going into the conference tourney puts Arizona in a solid spot as any to win the tournament.

The Wildcats, as we saw in the first meeting of these two squads, match up well with the Buffaloes (16-7, 8-3) -- it's a clash of undersized but defensive-minded teams looking to keep pace with Washington and California.

The similarities between UA and CU were obvious in Boulder, Colo., where the Buffs pulled out a 64-63 victory in their win.

Don't expect this one to look the same, though. In that one, Colorado big man Andre Roberson, the team's leading rebounder, struggled with foul trouble and went 0-for-8 from the field. Arizona's bench only scored six points, all coming from now-injured forward Kevin Parrom. And Arizona's usually stellar perimeter defense struggled to contain Carlon Brown and Spencer Dinwiddie, who were the top two scorers for CU with 19 and 13 respectively.

UA guard Nick Johnson knows that the onus is on he and Kyle Fogg to perform better this time around, according to the Arizona Daily Star.

"lon Brown, he really had his way with our defense, and so did their freshman, (Spencer) Dinwiddie," Johnson said. "So I know me and (Kyle) Fogg personally want to see them again. That's definitely big."

The big-game atmosphere at McKale surely goes in Arizona's favor, but don't think the Buffs will come out flat on ESPN. A loss would put them in a tie with Arizona in Pac-12 play, and with Oregon at 7-4 and Stanford and UCLA not far behind at 6-5 in league play, there's still much to be decided in the standings.

They've got everything to lose, and the opportunity to sweep the Wildcats on the season could bring out the Buffs' best, coach Tad Boyle told the Daily Camera in Boulder.

"You can't ask for anything more than playing a quality opponent on national TV," Boyle said. "That's where you want to be in February."

Like last season, Arizona got rolling at this point in the year, and aside from a flameout during a trip to the Los Angeles area schools, it appears February is when Miller's teams begin to show a cohesion that we saw the past two games.

Should the Wildcats win, they'll be shooting straight down that roller coaster track.

And if they lose?

They might not have enough push left in them, getting stuck atop a transition season and without enough to make it to the finish line that is the NCAA tourney.

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As bad as tha Pac is....

I am thinking the Pac is looking at one, maybe two bids tops. And two is only because I don’t think the Pac since the expansion to 64 teams has ever been a single bid league. I could be wrong on that point. Either way, I think the regular season winner will go to the dance along with the auto bid. Of course, that would imply that the Conference Tourney champ is different. If Washington were to tie both titles up, then the Pac maybe a single bid league.

I just don’t see how the Pac sends 3 teams right now, and there is only 6-7 games left for each team to beat up on other conference mates.

by mesocell on Feb 9, 2012 11:00 AM PST reply actions  

The only way for three bids

Is if the Pac-12 tourney winner is different than the regular season winner AND the second-place finisher in the league is neither of those teams. I think that’s actually possible. After this game, I think we’ll see if Arizona can go on a long winning streak. Even without one, I expect a Sean Miller-coached team to perform well in the Pac-12 tourney.

Kevin Zimmerman
@offensivelyfoul

by K_Zim on Feb 9, 2012 12:00 PM PST up reply actions  

It is possible.... but

Lets say the Cats win out with the exception of the game at Washington. That’s a very real possibility. Colorado is about to get buzzed sawed playing at McKale, at Matt and home for the Bears and the Trees. Oregon holds the tie breaker against us, but they play the Dawgs at home, then have to go to the Bay area and then OSU. No one (unless you have Arizona on your chest) sweeps the Bay area this year. So that puts us ahead of both of those teams. Cal goes to SoCal this weekend, then has a favorable schedule till they go to Maples.

Seems to me that Washington has the inside shot at the regular season title, with Cal and Arizona (Cats with the tiebreaker) aiming for 2nd/3rd. At that point, Washington is in the Dance. If either Cal or the Cats gets to the final game and loses to Washington, the loser will make it in. If an outside team gets hot, and wins the Pac tourney, and Washington, Cal or Arizona are not the other half of the final game, then I only see the two teams getting in.

Realistically, I think for three Pac teams to make it, the 2nd and 3rd place teams have to play a whale of a game in the tourney semifinals, then destroy whatever team makes the final from the other side of the bracket. Any other outcome, and we are back to two bids.

I could be very wrong, and have been before. But that is how I see it today. Everyone pretty much knows outside of Washington that they have to win the tourney to make the Dance.

by mesocell on Feb 9, 2012 12:41 PM PST up reply actions  

buzzed sawed

This sounds like a very intense thing.

The Ralphie Report - University of Colorado Athletics
SB Nation Denver

by Jon Woods on Feb 9, 2012 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

No disrespect intended

Colorado has had a great run this year. Very surprising and competitive, certainly to me. However, the schedule coming up is harsh. McKale is not quite the intimidating arena it has been this year, but it’s still a hard place to win. Oregon is a good team, and I would expect them to win that game at the Matt. I am really looking forward to how Cal and Stanford play in Boulder. If the Cats were in those shoes, I would have to honestly say that they would have little to no chance to win the Pac with that schedule. Of course, the Buffs are not the Cats, and you have that nice win over us earlier this year.

Personally, I am looking forward to a great series against Colorado in the future. I wish you and the Buffs good luck in all your future games…… with the exception of tonight. I trust you understand.

by mesocell on Feb 9, 2012 1:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh, none taken

I’m just giving you a hard time b/c it’s “buzz sawed”.

My bro went to UA, so I’ve been to McKale multiple times. I love it.

The Ralphie Report - University of Colorado Athletics
SB Nation Denver

by Jon Woods on Feb 9, 2012 1:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Gut feeling ...

Is that the selection committee isn’t going to be as harsh and they probably should be when deciding on Pac-12 teams to pick. I could be off base there, but I totally agree that only one or two teams really deserve to make it. Then again, it depends on if there’s enough mid-major teams that are more deserving, because they haven’t played anyone good either.

Kevin Zimmerman
@offensivelyfoul

by K_Zim on Feb 9, 2012 3:13 PM PST reply actions  

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by School Pride on Feb 15, 2012 12:28 PM PST reply actions  

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