While the first day of the Pac-12 Tournament had a few upsets, the second day of the Pac-12 Tournament went pretty much as expected. The top four seeds (Arizona, Oregon, Utah, and UCLA) advanced unscathed. Here's a preview of Friday's Pac-12 Tournament semi-finals:
4) UCLA Bruins vs. 1) Arizona Wildcats 6 PM PT, Pac-12 Network
The Wildcats will look to avenge last year's Pac-12 Tournament loss to UCLA in Friday night's Pac-12 Tournament semi-finals. They'll be facing a hungry UCLA team that needs to win this game if they want to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. One extremely important thing to note about this game is that UCLA's star freshman Kevon Looney is questionable due a facial fracture he suffered in UCLA's win over USC on Thursday. In the lone matchup between these two teams earlier this year, Looney gave the Arizona defense a bit of trouble as he proved to be a bit of mismatch for Brandon Ashley, not to mention he's also their leading rebounder at 9.3 RPG. Without Looney, it's hard to see UCLA beating Arizona.
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UCLA was the only Pac-12 team that gave Arizona a bit of trouble at home this year, so you have to figure this neutral-site game will be a close one. The last time these two teams met, Arizona was plagued by slow starts. The Bruins started off the first half on a 7-0 run and the Wildcats didn't score until about six minutes into the first half. In the second half, the Bruins jumped out to a 17-0 run (yes, you read that correctly) and turned a 14 point deficit into a 3 point lead. Fortunately for the Wildcats, they were able to bounce back and win. Seeing how this is a neutral-site game however, the Cats cannot afford to start slow as they won't have a McKale Center crowd behind them (although there will be plenty of red in sight).
In my opinion, Arizona's biggest advantage over UCLA is their depth and UCLA's lack thereof. The Bruins' starting 5 is very solid unit that can play with just about anyone, but they don't have much else besides that. In the only meeting between these teams this season, UCLA had ZERO bench points.
Aside from just bench scoring, the Bruins will have to stay out of foul trouble if they're going to win this game. Frontcourt starters Tony Parker and Kevon Looney were both in foul trouble last time and both ended up fouling out. Tony Parker only played 16 minutes, and Looney played 29. Freshman Thomas Welsh, who doesn't play much, was forced to play 19 minutes and he ended up fouling out too. Also, the lack of depth also means UCLA will get worn out as the game goes along. In February against Arizona, UCLA's leading scorer Norman Powell played 40 minutes, while Bryce Alford played 39 and Isaac Hamilton played 37. Arizona's relentless defensive pressure is known to tire teams out as the game goes along, which is why I give the edge to Arizona in this one. UCLA won't be able to hang around with Arizona for 40 minutes.
One player to watch for UCLA is Isaac Hamilton. In McKale in February, Hamilton was rather ineffective as he scored just 2 points and shot 1-6 from the field. However, on Friday he'll be coming off a game in which he scored 36 points on 13-17 shooting in a blowout win against USC. Arizona has to make sure that they don't let him replicate or even come close to that. Luckily they have a plethora of perimeter defenders they can use to slow him down if need be.
For Arizona, they need to make sure they can generate quality shots and knock them down when they do. Even though this hasn't been a problem for the Wildcats' offense lately, the Bruins did force the Cats to shoot just 34% from the field and 3-13 from downtown in February. Dusan Ristic might be one to keep an eye on in this one. In February's matchup, he scored 12 points in 11 minutes, but didn't play much in the second half, which was called into question by many Arizona fans. We'll see if Sean Miller decides to use him more this time.
T.J. McConnell was the only Arizona starter that was in double figures in their first matchup with UCLA, and the starting five combined to go just 9-36 from the field. I seriously doubt they'll struggle that much this time.
All in all, I expect the Wildcats to win this one, but it might be closer than expected. Kevon Looney's playing status is key though as UCLA cannot survive without him.
3) Utah Utes vs. 2) Oregon Ducks 8:30 PT, ESPN
Have to say I'm excited about this one because we'll see the should-have-been Pac-12 Player of the Year Delon Wright take on the official Pac-12 Player of the Year, Joseph Young. These teams met only once in the regular season, and it was Oregon that won the season series as they beat Utah in Eugene. The Ducks are arguably the hottest team in the Pac-12 right now as they've won their last 6 games and 10 of their last 11.
A player to watch for Utah in this one is not Delon Wright (even though he's fantastic and will likely have a solid game), but Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl will have an extreme size advantage on Oregon's frontcourt as Poeltl is a 7-footer, and Oregon's tallest starter is just 6'7". In the lone matchup between these two teams in Eugene, Poeltl did have a pretty quiet night though as he scored just 4 points. However, Poeltl is currently playing his best basketball of the season as he averaged 17 PPG in his last two games, including a 16 point, 5 rebound performance against Stanford in Day 2 of the Pac-12 Tournament.
For Oregon, the player to watch is Elgin Cook. Joseph Young may be the team's headlining star, but Cook might be their most consistent player. Cook has scored in double figures in 13 of his last 14 games, including averaging 19.3 PPG in his last three games. In the their first matchup, Cook was in foul trouble and only played 29 minutes. He still managed to score 12 points, however. Equally important, he'll likely be the one in charge of guarding Jakob Poeltl.
From an Arizona perspective, I think they'd rather face Oregon than Utah in the championship game, but unfortunately I don't think that will be the case as I have Utah winning this one. Expect Delon Wright to have a big game against Joe Young and the Ducks.