College basketball rankings: KemPom wary of Arizona basketball

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Ken Pomeroy's college basketball preseason ratings are telling of what Sean Miller was talking about at Pac-12 media day.

The Arizona Wildcats came in at No. 23 in Ken Pomeroy's 2014 preseason ratings, but it's not that Ken Pomeroy has anything against Arizona. If anything, the rankings only upholds coach Sean Miller's own wariness about the Wildcats lacking experience.

"We're not experienced enough to be head-and-shoulders above the field," Miller said at Pac-12 media day. "If you come to watch us practice right now, one of the things you feel is we have a lot of new pieces, a lot of newcomers.

"I'm very concerned about the early part of our schedule," Miller added. "I believe in our team, we have a lot of things working for us. One of the things we don't have is experience."

And Pomeroy's blog post about his analytics say just that. It's all projections, and it's especially hard to predict how freshmen yet to play a college basketball game will impact Arizona. A transfer like T.J. McConnell is also not going to be represented well. The Wildcats earned a No. 5 preseason ranking in the USA Today's Coaches Poll -- of course, coaches know how much Aaron Gordon and McConnell will help UA's chances. Those two are arguably the biggest selling points for Arizona to succeed in 2013-14.

Per KenPom.com:

The personnel component doesn't consider transfers or recruits outside the top 100. It does have knowledge of players that played two seasons ago but missed last season, but that is a small influence. So if your team has players that the personnel component can't see (transfers, junior college players, and non top-100 recruits for mid-majors), then it's possible your team is underrated. Keep in mind, though, that the first component handles some of this. It effectively sets a "replacement level" for new players on the roster that aren't accounted for in the personnel component.

2014 KenPom preseason college basketball ratings

Rank Team Conf W-L Pyth AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck Pyth OppO OppD Pyth
1 Louisville Amer 0-0 .9628 116.7 2 87.9 1 67.2 127 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
2 Michigan St. B10 0-0 .9399 113.3 7 89.2 2 65.3 257 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
3 Florida SEC 0-0 .9377 113.8 5 89.9 3 64.5 296 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
4 Oklahoma St. B12 0-0 .9283 113.2 8 90.6 7 67.6 101 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
5 Kentucky SEC 0-0 .9280 118.1 1 94.6 34 67.1 141 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
6 Duke ACC 0-0 .9247 114.9 3 92.4 12 67.8 92 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
7 Ohio St. B10 0-0 .9243 112.1 12 90.2 4 66.3 196 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
8 Kansas B12 0-0 .9200 112.6 9 91.1 8 67.8 89 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
9 Syracuse ACC 0-0 .9068 110.3 24 90.5 6 65.4 250 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
10 North Carolina ACC 0-0 .9032 113.8 6 93.7 22 70.3 12 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
11 Connecticut Amer 0-0 .9023 112.1 13 92.4 13 66.0 214 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
12 Michigan B10 0-0 .8887 112.5 10 93.9 27 65.3 261 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
13 Creighton BE 0-0 .8883 114.9 4 95.9 54 66.0 211 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
14 Georgetown BE 0-0 .8879 108.2 43 90.4 5 64.0 311 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
15 Iowa B10 0-0 .8879 111.6 16 93.3 18 67.8 91 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
16 Memphis Amer 0-0 .8850 110.5 21 92.5 15 69.0 33 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
17 New Mexico MWC 0-0 .8777 109.8 29 92.5 14 65.9 219 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
18 Gonzaga WCC 0-0 .8773 112.1 11 94.5 33 65.6 234 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
19 Virginia ACC 0-0 .8767 108.6 38 91.5 9 62.8 339 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
20 Pittsburgh ACC 0-0 .8766 110.5 20 93.2 17 62.9 336 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
21 VCU A10 0-0 .8765 111.8 15 94.3 30 67.9 79 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
22 Wisconsin B10 0-0 .8737 108.4 41 91.6 10 62.9 337 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
23 Arizona P12 0-0 .8720 110.9 17 93.9 25 66.8 156 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
24 Marquette BE 0-0 .8666 110.3 23 93.8 24 66.4 188 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
25 Indiana B10 0-0 .8665 111.8 14 95.0 38 67.6 105 +.000 1 .0000 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 .0000 1
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