2014 NBA Draft: The odds Arizona loses Aaron Gordon, Nick Johnson

Jeff Gross

Aaron Gordon and Nick Johnson, among other Wildcats could declare. What are the chances Arizona will lose them?

Arizona's 2014-15 roster rides on a number of individual decisions. The Wildcats have several players who could be NBA players down the road, but who will leave school early and who will stick around to give next year's team a better shot at a championship?

I have no inside info and have my own opinions about leaving school early, but this is how I see it.

Aaron Gordon: 95% gone

Remember, whether a player should go pro is not the same as asking whether a player is ready to play in the NBA.

Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News laid it out quite well: "What makes anybody think he'll 'develop' his game more quickly in a sophomore season at Arizona than working in the NBA with pros?"

Gordon has his strengths in his defense and high motor that make him an easy comparison to Shawn Marion from the optimist's perspective, but he might be a Michael Carter-Williams from the pessimist's perspective. Though he's stiff in the hips, he can probably capably defend well enough to play immediately. His offensive game is flawed. Nonetheless, it's hard to argue he would do much to improve his draft stock by returning, so regardless of whether he'd get on the floor or not -- if he went to a winning team, his offensive issues are masked and his value is probably much higher -- it's hard to pass up the opportunity to leave now.

Reports indicate Gordon is all but gone, but it's not official until it's official.

Nick Johnson: 55% gone

Projected as a second-round draft pick, it's hard to see what more Johnson can do from an individual perspective, but we know he could see himself having unfinished business. Two other combo guards and All-Americans, Russ Smith and Shabazz Napier, returned for their senior seasons and their very different years didn't change their draft stock.

Smith was always a second-round prospect, and Napier is in that same grouping. But the latter has his UConn team in the Final Four, and that's the appeal of Johnson returning.

ESPN's Jeff Goodman reports that his sources believe Gordon and Johnson both leaving is the most-likely scenario.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: 35% gone

This has become more of a question after the Wildcats' Elite Eight run. Hollis-Jefferson shined brightly in four tournament games, averaging 14 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2 steals per game. Some view Hollis-Jefferson as having a higher upside than Gordon, and though he's not physically there yet, teams would look at him as a lottery talent that could fall to the end of the first round.

Hollis-Jefferson will probably stay, but there's more reason for him to give this a second thought.

Kaleb Tarczewski: 10% gone

Goodman reports that Zeus is likely to return, and it makes sense for the big man who is still learning how to impact the game even when the offensive touches are hard to come by. He struggled to rebound the ball in the NCAA Tournament but as usual played an important role in the middle of Sean Miller's defense.

It's quite likely NBA teams don't think he's ready, but the rumors are there because the league covets size. Look at Pitt big man Steven Adams, who has a similar style and put up similar, less-than-eye-popping numbers as a freshman last season before becoming a lottery pick. Adams is starting for the Oklahoma City Thunder but was viewed as perhaps the most physically imposing player in the 2013 draft -- that, Zeus would not be this year.

Brandon Ashley: 5% gone

This one is thrown in here because nothing is ever certain. Ashley said after his injury that he'd return to school, but he was thinking about leaving for the NBA prior to the broken foot. It's hard to enter a draft having missed the majority of a college season due to injury, and Ashley could work himself into the first-round if he sticks around for his junior season.

So, do you agree with the figures?

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