A week after drubbing Cal 99-60 in Tucson, Arizona gets the opportunity to beat them up again. Cal, who knocked off 9-seed Washington State 84-59 on Wednesday to advance to the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament, hopes they can make this game competitive. They probably won't. Here are three things to think about in advance of this game:
Arizona's Talent/Cal's Lack of Talent
The first two games against Arizona didn’t go so well for Cal – after losing to Arizona by 23 at home, Cal outdid themselves with a 39 point loss to Arizona in Tucson. This game won’t be pretty, either.
First, Cal is bad at offense. Point guard Tyrone Wallace uses an ungodly percentage of Cal’s possessions when he’s on the floor – 31.1%, higher than any other player in the Pac-12 except Askia Booker – but he’s far less effective than his 17.2 points per game would ordinarily indicate, as he shoots less than 43% from the floor, can’t make three-pointers with any consistency, and doesn't even shoot free throws terribly well. But hey – at least his name sounds like that guy from Key and Peele’s East/West Bowl.
Must Reads
Unfortunately for Cal, Wallace is probably their best option, as the rest of Cal’s offense is not good. While Jordan Matthews is decent, he gets the ball less than David Kravish, a "center" who can’t shoot 50% from the floor and can’t shoot 30% from three. Those are Byron Mullens numbers. Jabari Bird is in the same boat. The end result is the third worst offensive efficiency in the Pac-12, ahead of only USC and Oregon State. These problems are only exacerbated if Arizona can get Cal into early foul trouble, as they did (primarily to Kravish) in last week's game.
It doesn’t get any better on the defensive end – Cal had the third worst defensive efficiency in the conference (ahead of only Washington and Washington State). And the last time they played Arizona, Cal gave up nearly 100 points.
In contrast, Arizona is the best team in the Pac-12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
What Cal can do is rebound. Cal is 21st in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, so they hit the defensive boards hard. Unfortunately for Cal, Arizona is 1st in the country in defensive rebounding percentage and also gets a higher percentage of available offensive rebounds than any other team in the conference. So even when Cal is good at something, they aren't as good at it as Arizona.
It doesn't help that Arizona will be motivated going into this game after T.J. McConnell lost out to Joseph Young for Pac-12 Player of the Year and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson lost out to Gary Payton II for Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year.
This game shouldn't be close.
Cal's Fan Base
Cal fans are the worst. I can’t stand Cal. Every other fan base has some redeemable quality (save for maybe Arizona State). Cal's doesn't. Cal has the least self-aware fan base in the conference:
Sign from a Cal fan here at Haas: "It's easier to get into Arizona than Robert Reich's class"
— Shannon Carroll (@scarroll43) January 25, 2015
And:
Another sign here at Haas -- "University rankings... #1 Cal... #85 University of Phoenix... #120 Arizona" Fans not pulling punches tonight
— Shannon Carroll (@scarroll43) January 25, 2015
And, of course:
The #Cal student section chanting Nobel Prizes down 20 at a basketball game is one of the most pathetic things I've ever heard.
— Rick Powell (@RickBallz) January 25, 2015
That's what Cal is all about: getting killed on the court and bragging about how smart they are. They're the college basketball equivalent of the guy with the pony tail from Good Will Hunting. They're the worst. That's why we need to crush them.
Ivan Rabb
Arizona's top remaining target in the class of 2015 is Ivan Rabb. Cal's top remaining target in the class of 2015 is also Ivan Rabb. He can't go to both schools, so someone is going to be disappointed. This game provides Arizona yet another opportunity to demonstrate their supremacy and, in the process, make Cal look bad.
Prediction: Cal fans will undoubtedly console themselves with how highly their school is ranked academically as they lose by 20. Arizona, meanwhile, will advance to the semi-finals to probably face UCLA or Arizona State.
Starters:
G T.J. McConnell
F Stanley Johnson
F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
F Brandon Ashley
C Kaleb Tarczewski
Where to Watch: Diablo's Cantina, if you're in Vegas. Pac-12 Network, if you're not. Also, Pac-12.com is apparently streaming the Thursday games for free.
Time: 12:00 p.m. PT