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The Arizona Wildcats came in at No. 23 in Ken Pomeroy's 2014 preseason ratings, but it's not that Ken Pomeroy has anything against Arizona. If anything, the rankings only upholds coach Sean Miller's own wariness about the Wildcats lacking experience.
"We're not experienced enough to be head-and-shoulders above the field," Miller said at Pac-12 media day. "If you come to watch us practice right now, one of the things you feel is we have a lot of new pieces, a lot of newcomers.
"I'm very concerned about the early part of our schedule," Miller added. "I believe in our team, we have a lot of things working for us. One of the things we don't have is experience."
And Pomeroy's blog post about his analytics say just that. It's all projections, and it's especially hard to predict how freshmen yet to play a college basketball game will impact Arizona. A transfer like T.J. McConnell is also not going to be represented well. The Wildcats earned a No. 5 preseason ranking in the USA Today's Coaches Poll -- of course, coaches know how much Aaron Gordon and McConnell will help UA's chances. Those two are arguably the biggest selling points for Arizona to succeed in 2013-14.
The personnel component doesn't consider transfers or recruits outside the top 100. It does have knowledge of players that played two seasons ago but missed last season, but that is a small influence. So if your team has players that the personnel component can't see (transfers, junior college players, and non top-100 recruits for mid-majors), then it's possible your team is underrated. Keep in mind, though, that the first component handles some of this. It effectively sets a "replacement level" for new players on the roster that aren't accounted for in the personnel component.
2014 KenPom preseason college basketball ratings
| Rank | Team | Conf | W-L | Pyth | AdjO | AdjD | AdjT | Luck | Pyth | OppO | OppD | Pyth | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville | Amer | 0-0 | .9628 | 116.7 | 2 | 87.9 | 1 | 67.2 | 127 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 2 | Michigan St. | B10 | 0-0 | .9399 | 113.3 | 7 | 89.2 | 2 | 65.3 | 257 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 3 | Florida | SEC | 0-0 | .9377 | 113.8 | 5 | 89.9 | 3 | 64.5 | 296 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 4 | Oklahoma St. | B12 | 0-0 | .9283 | 113.2 | 8 | 90.6 | 7 | 67.6 | 101 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 5 | Kentucky | SEC | 0-0 | .9280 | 118.1 | 1 | 94.6 | 34 | 67.1 | 141 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 6 | Duke | ACC | 0-0 | .9247 | 114.9 | 3 | 92.4 | 12 | 67.8 | 92 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 7 | Ohio St. | B10 | 0-0 | .9243 | 112.1 | 12 | 90.2 | 4 | 66.3 | 196 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 8 | Kansas | B12 | 0-0 | .9200 | 112.6 | 9 | 91.1 | 8 | 67.8 | 89 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 9 | Syracuse | ACC | 0-0 | .9068 | 110.3 | 24 | 90.5 | 6 | 65.4 | 250 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 10 | North Carolina | ACC | 0-0 | .9032 | 113.8 | 6 | 93.7 | 22 | 70.3 | 12 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 11 | Connecticut | Amer | 0-0 | .9023 | 112.1 | 13 | 92.4 | 13 | 66.0 | 214 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 12 | Michigan | B10 | 0-0 | .8887 | 112.5 | 10 | 93.9 | 27 | 65.3 | 261 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 13 | Creighton | BE | 0-0 | .8883 | 114.9 | 4 | 95.9 | 54 | 66.0 | 211 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 14 | Georgetown | BE | 0-0 | .8879 | 108.2 | 43 | 90.4 | 5 | 64.0 | 311 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 15 | Iowa | B10 | 0-0 | .8879 | 111.6 | 16 | 93.3 | 18 | 67.8 | 91 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 16 | Memphis | Amer | 0-0 | .8850 | 110.5 | 21 | 92.5 | 15 | 69.0 | 33 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 17 | New Mexico | MWC | 0-0 | .8777 | 109.8 | 29 | 92.5 | 14 | 65.9 | 219 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 18 | Gonzaga | WCC | 0-0 | .8773 | 112.1 | 11 | 94.5 | 33 | 65.6 | 234 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 19 | Virginia | ACC | 0-0 | .8767 | 108.6 | 38 | 91.5 | 9 | 62.8 | 339 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 0-0 | .8766 | 110.5 | 20 | 93.2 | 17 | 62.9 | 336 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 21 | VCU | A10 | 0-0 | .8765 | 111.8 | 15 | 94.3 | 30 | 67.9 | 79 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 22 | Wisconsin | B10 | 0-0 | .8737 | 108.4 | 41 | 91.6 | 10 | 62.9 | 337 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 23 | Arizona | P12 | 0-0 | .8720 | 110.9 | 17 | 93.9 | 25 | 66.8 | 156 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 24 | Marquette | BE | 0-0 | .8666 | 110.3 | 23 | 93.8 | 24 | 66.4 | 188 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |
| 25 | Indiana | B10 | 0-0 | .8665 | 111.8 | 14 | 95.0 | 38 | 67.6 | 105 | +.000 | 1 | .0000 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | .0000 | 1 |