Rawle Alkins will have a successful career no matter where he’s selected in Thursday’s NBA Draft.
At least that’s what Chris Vernon of The Ringer thinks. Vernon listed Alkins as one of nine prospects that he is “100 percent confident” will not fail in the NBA.
Brooklyn in the house! Alkins was a high school force of nature who won three city titles and two state championships in New York. He had a foot issue that hampered his career at Arizona, but this kid has so many attributes that I love. Unstoppable motor, built like a linebacker, good-looking shot, and do-or-die playing style. He has been projected too low since this process started. Alkins will be a fan favorite wherever he plays. You want a Marcus Smart, Tony Allen, or P.J. Tucker–type player when you need a big play in a big game. I see that with Alkins.
Alkins is widely projected to be a second-round pick. Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated, for instance, has the UA guard going 37th overall to the Sacramento Kings.
Generally, most second-round picks have unimpressive NBA careers. Using past data, here’s the expected value of the 37th pick, according to a chart on 82games.com:
- 10 percent chance of becoming a star
- 10 percent chance of becoming a solid player
- 30 percent chance of becoming a role player
- 25 percent chance of becoming a deep bench player
- 25 percent chance of becoming a bust
Using these numbers, there’s a 50 percent chance Alkins has an uneventful NBA career.
Alkins does have a well-rounded skill-set like Vernon mentioned, but he doesn’t have an elite skill that sets him apart from other prospects, which many believe could lead to his demise.
Vernon isn’t worried.
“I care about one thing when it comes to the draft,” he wrote. “Getting a player who does not suck.
“Some of these guys will be stars, some might end up just being role players, but I am 100 percent confident none of them will fail.”
You can see the rest of Vernon’s list here.