The Arizona Wildcats have to win two of their last five games in order to gain bowl eligibility.
Seems easy enough, right? Wrong. So, so wrong.
According to ESPN’s FPI metrics, the Wildcats have the 14th-toughest remaining schedule in college football.
Here are their last five games, along with Arizona’s win probability in each one, per FPI.
- at Stanford (34.1%)
- vs. Oregon State (65.1%)
- at No. 11 Oregon (5.1%)
- vs No. 12 Utah (17.5%)
- at No. 24 Arizona State (28.4%)
Put that all together and the Wildcats are projected to finish with 5.5-6.5 wins, though they are only favored to win one game the rest of the season, meaning a 5-win season is totally on the table.
It was always known that the second half of Arizona’s schedule was so brutal, hence why the Hawaii and Texas Tech games were so critical.
Arizona’s best shot at reaching six wins seems to be beating a banged up Stanford team (that 34.1% win probability seems a bit low) and then topping Oregon State at Arizona Stadium on Homecoming.
If the Wildcats drop one of those games, then the Territorial Cup will likely determine if Arizona goes bowling this season. We know how that turned out last year.