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ESPN’s FPI gives Arizona slim chance to win Pac-12, but not lowest odds

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Hopes are understandably not high for the Arizona Wildcats this season. But they’re getting a little better!

ESPN’s Football Power Index has released updated projections for the Pac-12 now that the league is on tap to play a 7-game season beginning Nov. 7. It projects Arizona’s record at 2.6-4.4, which sets the over/under on wins at 2.5.

That’s actually a game above the number set by online sportsbook BetOnline, which has the Wildcats’ over/under at 1.5 wins.

Arizona is ranked 62nd nationally by FPI, which is ninth-best in the Pac-12 ahead of Washington State (63), Oregon State (71) and Colorado (76). The Wildcats finished last among conference teams at No. 72 in 2019.

And while the UA was picked to finish last in the South Division by the league’s media, ESPN’s FPI gives it a 2 percent chance to win the South, which is better than Colorado’s 0.7 percent. As for winning the Pac-12, the Wildcats have been given a 0.3 percent shot of doing so, which is triple what FPI gave them back in August after the 10-game conference-only schedule was released.

Here are the win probabilities for each game:

  • Nov. 7 at Utah — 20.0%
  • Nov. 14 vs. USC — 16%
  • Nov. 21 at Washington — 25.9%
  • Nov. 28 at UCLA — 39.1%
  • Dec. 5 vs. Colorado — 65.5%
  • Dec. 11 vs. ASU — 49.5%