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ESPN gives Arizona slim chance to win Pac-12 South

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arizona-wildcats-football-schedule-2021-takeaways-highlights-preview-analysis-fisch Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images

So you’re saying there’s a chance.

The Arizona Wildcats have a 1.2 percent chance of winning the Pac-12 South Division this fall, according to ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) rankings.

As bad as that sounds, it’s not the lowest odds of in the division. Those belong to the Colorado Buffaloes, who per FPI have a 0.2 percent chance of taking the South.

USC (61.5 percent) is the overwhelming favorite, followed by Utah (30.3) and then UCLA (4.0) and ASU (2.8).

The North Division is even more lopsided, per FPI, with Oregon being given an 86.2 percent shot of repeating as champs. The next closest is Washington, at 5.7 percent, followed by Stanford (4.8), Cal (2.3), Washington State (0.8) and Oregon State (0.2).

Arizona, which is coming off a 4-8 season in 2019, is ranked 57th in ESPN’s FPI with a projected win total of between 5.3 and 6.7 wins. Another ESPN metric, former SB Nation colleague Bill Connelly’s SP+, has the Wildcats at No. 78 overall.

Connelly ranks Arizona 30th in terms of returning production, at 73 percent, though those figures don’t factor in the recent transfer of 3-year starting safety Scottie Young Jr.