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At the beginning of the day, news began to trickle out that Ivan Rabb and Caleb Swanigan were both going to commit to Cal:
All signs pointing to Caleb Swanigan and Ivan Rabb heading to Cal, sources told ESPN. Right now, that's where they are heading to play.
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanESPN) April 10, 2015
This would be bad for Arizona fans. Ivan Rabb has been Arizona's primary target for a while, and he has been openly campaigning for other top recruits (including Caleb Swanigan and Jaylen Brown) to join him if he were to go to Cal. If all these players went to Cal and if Tyrone Wallace chose not to declare for the NBA Draft, Cal would potentially be very good. I would hate this because I hate Cal.
But Rabb delayed his decision. He initially was going to declare after his state championship game. He didn't. Then he was going to declare at the McDonald's All-American game. And he didn't. The reason behind these delays was supposedly that he was trying to recruit other guys to come with him to Cal.
That didn't happen. As is typical, the result was ultimately disappointing for Cal fans, as Caleb Swanigan committed to Michigan State instead:
Next year I will be going Michigan State university. Once a spartan. Always a Spartan
— Big Sauce (@Biggs_Swanigan) April 10, 2015
This does not rule out Ivan Rabb to Cal, but it certainly makes it a lot more interesting. Up to now, a lot of recruiting insider types have been saying Ivan Rabb was going to commit to Cal along with Swanigan and maybe, just maybe, Brown. Given that he has been trying to recruit other guys to come with him to Cal and that Cal is the hometown team, I'd guess that, all else equal, he would rather be at Cal.
But it's not equal. Arizona has more tradition than Cal, more talent than Cal, and a track record of getting similar one-and-done guys to the NBA. Rabb's heart may still be at Cal, but that might not be enough, particularly when he wouldn't have much help around him. Even if Rabb does go to Cal and Wallace decides not to declare for the NBA draft, Cal is still less of a threat than they'd be with Swanigan in the fold.
Regardless of what Rabb ultimately decides to do, Arizona is in a better position this afternoon (either with a Rabb commitment or with a weaker Cal) than they were this morning.