Offense and fielding: How changes off the field affected Arizona softball’s numbers on the field

When Arizona softball added two new coaches to the staff in the offseason, the focus was understandably on the change in pitching coach. The addition of Josh Bloomer as the hitting/offensive coach could have been just as big. How big that influence turned out to be is open to question.

While Arizona didn’t necessarily have a new defensive coach, there was a collaboration between returning assistant Lauren Lappin and new pitching coach Christian Conrad. Conrad also became the first base coach later in the season when Lappin was moved to third and Bloomer was moved into the dugout.

In the first part of this two-part series, we looked at overall wins and pitching numbers after the first year under the new staff. In the second, it’s time to look at the offensive and fielding numbers.

Offense

The addition of Bloomer may have been even more important than the change at pitching coach given that Arizona needed to score a lot of runs to win games again this season.

The Wildcats played 36 games against teams that made the NCAA tournament. That includes six against teams from one-bid leagues: Northern Colorado, Omaha, Grand Canyon, and Villanova. They went 19-16-1 in those games with six of the wins coming against those in one-bid leagues.

Arizona scored six or more runs In 14 of those 19 wins. It won by three or fewer runs in five of the 14 games when it scored at least six runs, indicating close games. It won just five games when scoring three or fewer runs. In short, the Wildcats usually needed to score at least four runs and often six or more to win against teams that got into the tournament. That has been fairly typical of the team for the past few seasons.

When all was said and done, it was difficult to see a lot of changes in the Wildcats’ offensive approach this season, especially when compared to Bloomer’s stated goals when he was hired.

Bloomer has a stated philosophy and history of offensive aggressiveness. This includes the approach in the batter’s box and on the base paths. In his first meetings with the media at Arizona, he said that his goal was to break the Wildcats’ single-season stolen bases record. If that didn’t happen, it would be because they were hitting more doubles and triples. He said that the team might run themselves out of some innings and people might wonder why he had sent runners at times, but he was okay with that.

There was an immediate contradiction between his stated goals and head coach Caitlin Lowe’s feelings about being aggressive on the base paths. Her response to his comments about stealing more bases was that he might change his tune when he saw better catchers.

It certainly didn’t play out the way that Bloomer forecasted. Arizona improved its base stealing by a small number and it hit more triples (overall and per game) compared to 2023. The Wildcats hit slightly fewer doubles per game and overall, though.

Arizona was more aggressive early in the season, especially using the speed of freshman Regan Shockey. She ended up with a team-high eight stolen bases on eight attempts. Dakota Kennedy (6 SB, 2 CS), Kaiah Altmeyer (6 SB, 0 CS), and Tayler Biehl (4 SB, 1 CS) were the other top Wildcats when it came to swiping bags.

Almost all of that came to a screeching halt when conference play rolled around. Kennedy led the team with three stolen bases on four attempts. No one else, including the perfect Shockey, attempted more than one stolen base in Pac-12 competition. After going 27 for 36 in nonconference play, the Wildcats were just 6 for 8 in league play.

It’s questionable whether that success or lack thereof has much to do with opposing catchers, though. When compared to other Pac-12 teams—in other words, teams that face the same catchers—Arizona was seventh of nine teams in stolen bases both overall and in conference play. Their 6 of 8 success rate against other Pac-12 teams was dramatically different from league leaders like Oregon (30 of 40), Washington (25 of 29), or Utah (20 of 25). Even UCLA, which was behind Arizona overall, pulled ahead in league play, going 11 of 13 against Pac-12 competition.

Arizona certainly succeeded in scoring runs without an aggressive running game. However, the ability to score took an expected dive against better pitchers. The Wildcats scored five runs in two games against Arkansas. They scored just one run in two games against Alabama. Before Washington took its late-season dive, the ‘Cats scored seven runs in three games. They scored no runs against Stanford’s NiJaree Canady, although they had a great deal of success against Regan Krause and Kylie Chung. Against Oklahoma State, it was four runs in two games with all but one coming against Ivy Rosenberry.

The question then becomes whether it’s worse to risk losing a base runner to a caught stealing or to hope that your hitters can string together multiple hits (especially extra-base hits) against elite pitchers, especially when your team typically needs to score at least four runs to win a game. Lowe’s view seems to be that losing the baserunners is the bigger concern.

The Wildcats tried to manufacture more runs by being aggressive on the base paths in regionals, but they didn’t have much success. Lowe commented that they needed to trust their hitters rather than trying to force things.

In the end, Arizona’s 44 stolen base attempts were an increase over its 2023 numbers. Last season, the Wildcats attempted just 31 stolen bases and were successful 25 times. That’s a roughly 30 percent increase in attempts. Their success rate also improved but by a lower margin (24 percent).

As for the other aspects of the offensive game, it was a mixed bag. Arizona’s team average was exactly the same (.329) as it was in 2023. Its OPS dropped nominally from .936 to .930.

The Wildcats played two more games in 2024 than in 2023, so counting stats like total hits aren’t the best method of comparison. In this case, per-game stats are better comparisons.

Arizona got more hits in 2024 but that didn’t translate into more runs. Hits increased by 0.2 per game but runs dropped by 0.6. That’s a bit of a surprise since some of the increase in hits came from an increase in home runs from 1.2 per game in 2023 to 1.3 in 2024.

RBI also dropped. Arizona drove in 5.8 runs per game in 2024 after getting 6.3 RBI per game in 2023.

Where Arizona had a decided improvement was in strikeout rate. Almost all of Arizona’s returners saw some improvement in K% this season.* For some, it was dramatic.

Among Arizona’s regular hitters, the highest K% on the team in 2024 was Scupin at 16.2%. In 2023, Arizona had five regular hitters with K% of 17.8 or higher. Three Wildcats were at 23.7 or higher.

The most dramatic drop was by Altmeyer, who had a K% of 23.7 in 2023 but only 5.5 in 2024. That went from the third-worst on the team to the best. Another big drop by a returner was the doing of Kennedy, who went from 14.7 in 2023 to 8.7 in 2024.

Altmeyer and Kennedy were also leaders in the improvement by many Wildcat returners drawing walks. Altmeyer’s walk rate increased from 10.5 percent to 12.6 percent. She struck out just 0.44 times for every walk she drew in 2024 after having 2.26 strikeouts for every walk in 2023. Kennedy went from an 11.9 percent walk rate in 2023 to a team-high 19.3 percent in 2024. That dropped her K:BB from 1.24 to 0.45.

The pair of outfielders and pinch hitter Paige Dimler were the only three to accumulate more walks than strikeouts. The three returners who did it last season—Allie Skaggs, Jasmine Perezchica, and Olivia DiNardo—all had their strikeouts overtake or draw even with their walks this season, although the margins were not huge.

Other advanced metrics, like wOBA (which gives different weights to different hitting outcomes) and wRC+ (which turns wOBA into runs created and compares that against the Division I average), showed some dramatic improvements by some players and some minor drops by others. All of Arizona’s regular players were at least average, though.

Arizona’s highest wRC+ was again Kennedy, who came in at 201. That means she contributed 101 percent as many runs as the average D1 player. Arizona’s lowest wRC+ was Tayler Biehl at 100. Even that was a big improvement over 2023 when she was at 87. The Wildcats’ top five hitters ranged from Kennedy’s 201 to Altmeyer’s 141.

Arizona’s seniors saw consistent decreases in many of their stats. Scupin dropped from a wRC+ of 188 to 175. Her ISO, a measurement of power that gives an idea of how many bases a player gets per at-bat, dropped from .408 to .281. Skaggs went from 180 to 162 in wRC+. She led the team in ISO at .317, but that was a considerable drop from the .354 she had in 2023. The fact that her .317 led the team in 2024 while Scupin’s .408 led in 2023 was indicative of a drop across the board for most of the Wildcats, although some individuals like Biehl and Altmeyer saw dramatic improvements.

In 2023, the team didn’t have anyone creating as many runs relative to other D1 players as Kennedy did in 2024. However, those at the bottom of wRC+ did better in 2023. Arizona had three players at or near average in 2024, ranging from 100 to 104. In 2023, Biehl was the only regular player who fell below 112, although she had irregular plate appearances.

Overall, Arizona saw improvements in advanced hitting stats by its sophomores but a drop by its seniors. The question is how much of that can be attributed to coaching and how much is simply the ebbs and flows of softball or the maturing of young players.

Fielding

While there was no change in defensive coaching, Conrad was a new voice in the planning and implementation of defensive principles and positioning. Arizona introduced a shift that has become common around softball in the last few years. This shift is employed against slap hitters, who rarely hit to the right side of the field—especially the outfield. The introduction of this new defense was coordinated by Lappin and Conrad.

The general public (including most media) doesn’t have access to data about the efficacy of the infield shift employed by the Wildcats and others. In Arizona’s version, centerfielder Shockey came down to play left of second base putting three infielders on the left side of the infield and two on the right side. The right fielder moved into center, leaving right field open.

As far as results, it was an effective defense. There is just not enough public data to independently judge whether it’s more effective than having four infielders with the shortstop generally fielding the slap. The assumption is that the coaches have enough data to show that it is, but that can’t be confirmed.

Whatever defensive strategies Arizona employed, it once again had one of the top defenses in Division I based on fielding percentage. The Wildcats finished third in the country with a .980 team fielding percentage after the end of the conference tournaments. That came one year after finishing second with a .985 fielding percentage.

Fielding percentage isn’t the be-all and end-all of defensive statistics, though. One thing that makes Arizona’s defense superb isn’t just that it makes easy plays without committing errors; several players can regularly make difficult plays due to speed, instinct, and daring. They have the range, the mindset, and the skill to get to balls and turn them into outs.

Arizona had several highly-rated players in defensive runs saved (DRS) and defensive wins above replacement (dWAR). While Kennedy paced the team and was third in the Pac-12 in overall WAR at 4.91 (40th in Division I), she didn’t lead the team in dWAR or DRS. She wasn’t far off, though.

Freshman centerfielder Shockey led the team in dWAR with a 0.49, contributing to her overall WAR of 2.80. She also led the team in DRS at 5.90, placing her 68th in Division I for both DRS and dWAR. Kennedy was the fourth on the team in both dWAR (0.35) and DRS (4.20). She trailed Shockey, Biehl (0.39 dWAR/4.62 DRS), and Altmeyer (0.37 dWAR/4.37 dWAR).

The fact that Arizona’s four strongest defenders were all underclassmen is promising for the future. It’s not new for the program to be among the best, either, so it’s tough to see much changing regardless of who runs the show.

*All advanced hitting, pitching, and fielding stats come from Synergy or Pitchcom via D1softball.com.